Back to the trenches I guess. Some of you might remember my last post over proffesional approaches to the markets. If not I suggest you take a look on it before reading this. https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cxymyf/a_peek_into_how_financial_institutions_play_this/
I promised to discuss some stuff about macroeconomic approaches to forex, and well, with some delay here I am. Again, here I introduce the very same disclaimer. This is a professional approach, not coming from retail. Take everything with a grain of salt, and exercise proper due diligence with your approach. Sincerely hope you get something out of this post. An inconvenient, forex truth
You've been there, struggling and suffering for a while. You have experienced the pain that the markets can unleash on you. You have left positions on the red for longer than your sanity could possible hold. You have opened positions that moved to the green, but you did not take any profits and you let that position slowly die and possibly causing huge loses. Now here you are , in October 2019, possibly as a breakeven trader, still suffering and trying. You have researched hundreds of indicators, if not thousands. You thought you have all sorted out with your RSI , stochastics and TDI. Yet you have switched between strategies more than you have changed your underpants in your whole life. Spent too many hours looking at the screen, wondering what the hell you are still missing.
And the incovenient truth is that you want the glitz and the glamour, and the caviar, but you are not willing to eat the shit.
And this is the shit: How are you expecting to make any good money on a field where you dont know virtually anything about it. Nor the substance that you are trading, nor what moves it. How are you actually expecting to beat guys that breath and eat economics?. You know literally nothing about volatility and liquidity, about interbanking flows , about puts and calls, market microestructure and price delivery mechanisms both on OTC markets and CME , what is GDP , how is calculated and why is critical. CPI, NMI, GDP to debt ratios, UST, repo markets, shadow banking, carry diferentials, how and why commodities alter certain currencies. EM vs G10 currencies, pegged vs unpegged. Balances of Payments.... When you hear "greeks" you are thinking about the Iliad or Athens. You know nothing about business and credit cycles. Valuation anchors, return to the mean, standard deviations, fair values. I could go on and on and on. Does this make you uncomfortable? It should.
You have dozens of the best students that the world can produce, coming out of the London School of Economics, or from IT degrees in Harvard and MIT, all moving into freaking huge financial institutions, building complex system, doing incredible research . Funded to an extreme you can not imagine. Working in partnership with the IMF and Central Banks all aroundthe world. PhD's dedicating their lifes to such complex systems and situations....... and yet here you are, insolent and ignorant piece of s***, you that have been trying to make your "RSI" or "stochastic" work for 2 months, trying to beat this multi billion-trillionaire infrastrucure. Do you start to realize where the f*** do you stand? Do you really believe even for a freaking second that you can beat them on their game? Using RSI or Ichimoku? EAT.THIS.SHIT.
And its not that technicals are not necesary. They are. But believe me, I (and most pro's that I've ever engaged with) spent less than 1/5 of the time actually managing trades and looking at price charts. If I'm not scalping , my day starts with me reading around 12 to 15 research papers coming from the main financial institutions, glued to my Reuters terminal reading more reports, looking at polls, updating my macroeconomic models with the latest data, performing calculations related to options...... only then, with a fundamental trading idea, I will move to evaluate technicals to see if the timing is good. I want to learn, how shall I procede?
You want to build a lasting and enjoyable relationship with the market? EAT THE SHIT
, and do all that is under your control to actually be able to open The Financial Times and understand what they are talking about. It will take you years, and for the education, hundreds of dollars. But this is how it goes if you want to get real. This is career, not a hobby. This is simply the way to be consistent. EAT THE SHIT.
I compiled some resources to get you started:
ACATIS Konferenz 2016, Mr. Koo, Surviving in the Intellectually Bankrupt Monetary Policy Environment - A great video coming from Nomura, to understand the actual shitty situation in the Eurozone.
Online Courses - Look for IMF on EDX. Also, a fenomenal course on Banking and Money in Coursera.
Macroeconomics, Gregory Mankiw - Start here to graps the basic concepts
Financial Times Guide to the Financial Markets
Financial Times Guide to Banking
Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy: A Practitioner’s Guide to Tactical Asset Allocation
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession
The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap: A Hazardous Road for the World Economy
The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization (English Edition)
The new lombard street - how the fed became the dealer of last resort
Foreign Exchange , Amy Middleton
The Role of Currency in Institutional Portfolios, Momtchil Pojarliev and Richard M. Levich
Currency Overlay: A Practical Guide, Second Edition, Hai Xin
The Handbook of Corporate Financial Risk (2nd edition)
Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report (Wiley Trading)
How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities
Market Liquidity: Theory, Evidence, and Policy (English Edition)
Trading And Exchanges: Market Microstructure For Practitioners
The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates
The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve
Big Debt Crises
Payments Systems in the U.S. - Third Edition: A Guide for the Payments Professional
The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse (English Edition)
Stabilizing an Unstable Economy
I know what y'all thinking, scam. But hear me out. I've been an entrepreneur and full stack dev since 2006, started with Dreamweaver remember that? Have made my money now. So in December bought into bitcoin at 17K and quit at 13K to venture into alts. I have trading experience but did not day trade crypto. I hate trading as I'm too emo for that shit haha.
So fast forward a couple months ago and I thought I could increase my stack by trading these waves but didn't want to do it myself. Started looking into bots. Complicated and time consuming stuff, considering I have trading and programming experience. Crazy thought, let's do it myself. So fired up my Mac registered coinbakers.com
after researching days to acquire a good domain name. I own a lot of domains but finding crypto related domains is hard, I tell you. Then again, I only use .coms for my businesses.
The most difficult and important part is de development of a strategy. I know you can make crazy returns in backtesting, but would perform very poor in real life. I choose lagging indicators, just Simple Moving Averages, to start with. I added Stochastics, RSI, TDI, volume, to spot patterns. I made sure I could grab the biggest jumps and from there start to minimize losing trades. It's been running with real money on a real exchange. My biggest tests were, can the bot NOT buy when the market is going down, can the bot buy when the market is going up, and are the buy and sell prices similar as in my backtests. To test the latter, once the bot bought into BTC, I just imported the latest data in the backtest and see the prices the backtest. Worked like a charm.
Past couple months was just a huge bear market, so I could only test this real life scenario. The bot moves slow and only does 1-2 trades a month, unlike some other bots that places hundreds of orders. It did this very well and it stayed out of the markets. But I still needed to test when the market was growing and if it would buy in and make a profit. It's cool it's staying out of the market to prevent losses but we need to make money too.
On 17th July at 14:00UTC it entered a position at the price of 5743 EUR. It sold the position July 30th at 18:00UTC for 6802.85 EUR. That's 18.45%! Okay I was convinced, how strange that may sound as it's my own thing. I received a trillion notifications because of a bug, but the overall strategy worked. The crazy thing was that I didn't interfere or had to look at charts. I just checked it sold and saw my balance being higher. You'd say well that's the whole point buddy, but too see your money increase like kinda magically is still a crazy. It's running along now nicely with a buffed up balance.
However, the entrepreneurial side in me started itching a while back. My goal was to create a "base" group of customers that would pay a monthly license fee. This would create a consistent recurring revenue besides the profits from the bot. Don't need many, just a nice base. Can I market and sell this? I mean how hard can it be to market something that makes other people money right? Well, not as easy at least as I imagined because my usual marketing channels I use for my companies banned crypto ads. Including reddit. So yeah we can talk about it but not promote it. I'm moving into alternative ways to promote, like speaking at meetups, looking for people who affiliate partners, etc.
So why doing all this? I can just load up my personal assets and use it myself. Which I already do but there's something in showing other people what everyone thinks it's impossible. And eventhough I don't think I add that much value when trading (stocks, forex, crypto), unlike my other started ventures, it does break the walhalla of truly passive income. Which I am very fascinated by.
Then again it's been running for less than two months, maybe I'm missing something. For now it seems to be working and I thought I'd share it with y'all. Enjoy and DYOR!
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